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Few months back I believe I was the one who questioned exactly how good Iwakuma was going to be precisely because of his nominally high HR/9 rate, (1.2 last year).
His "problem" has ALWAYS been the long ball. Of course, that problem produced a 9-5; 3.16 2012 line (16 starts), and a 7-4; 2.97 line this year (19 starts, but nearly identical innings).
But, in all honesty, I have actually flipped my position a bit. I think "some" of his HR problem is self-induced ... in that he's been giving up "too many" HRs because he could afford to.
For me, the defining trait for 2013 isn't the HRs ... it's the walks. 3.1/9 last season, 1.3 this year. Basically, he is REFUSING to nibble, and it is costing him. With his control, he doesn't have to nibble much ... but he does need to adapt to the MLB paradigm of power. Despite his age and experience, in many ways, he is in exactly the same place the Felix was in 2006 at age 20. Armed with a tonne of talent, but lacking the experience to understand when it is "wise" to rely on the talent and when it is wise to let the opponent get himself out (or walk).
At this point, I am perfectly willing to buy into Iwakuma as a genuine top 20 in the Majors pitching "talent". All he needs to do is learn just a bit of the Miguel Batista wisdom of when to challenge and when to nibble, (just like Felix had to learn).
So, to a degree, yes, I think the league has "figured him out". But, with a 1.3 walk rate, he's currently got MORE than enough room to adjust and still put up an ERA around 3.00.
Some notes on "when" he's getting smacked.
12 of his 20 HRs allowed were to the leadoff hitter in an inning. (15 of 20 were with bases empty)
His slashline against leadoff inning hitters: .258/.294/.608 (.902). In his 126 PAs to start an inning, he has allowed 12 HRs and only allowed 6 walks.
His OPS against is actually WORST on the 1st pitch (.949) than on 1-0 (.867) or 2-0 (.929) counts. On full counts, (.775), he's actually allows only 1 HR in 34 PAs. Basically, he is hyper-uber aggressive on the first pitch to the first batter every inning. It's not a major adjustment to simply be "a little" less adamant about getting that first strike - depending on who is at the plate. Especially nibble when high-K guys are up - let them (knowing this tendency) strike themselves out by fishing.
Me? I think he can definitely make the adjustment. He's very intelligent. But his pattern indicates two dimension thinking. :)
He just needs dial back the ego a bit on that first pitch and I think he'll remain an All Star.