Because we NEED our new rockstar 2B, and our converted 2B/CF, and our great catching prospect, and our slugging AAA SS, because we SUCK there.
So if you can't trade ANY of your really good hitting prospects because they're all filling positions of need, then I assume you're trading your best pitching prospect.
You can't say, "well the Ms are fine with Morales and Ibanez hitting for some power" because neither guy will be here next year. Morse can't play 100 games a year, apparently.
So on the, "the offense is settled at X positions for 2014 and 2015" front we're going with 3rd base, and... and...
The club is ACTUALLY lacking stability and production everywhere. That's why the rotation has holes, the lineup is just a couple of pieces in an ocean of suck, and the bullpen is staggering around like a drunken mime.
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We have lots of talent, but we have very little in the way of expected production. Smoak could crater tomorrow. Ryan already has. Saunders is plunging toward earth like a dinosaur-killing asteroid. Franklin is the man, but Ackley was the man his first 2 months in the bigs too. Miller hasn't gotten here yet. Zunino was promoted VERY early in his development cycle, especially as a catcher, so hopefully that doesn't get him run over on the way to the production aisle.
Some of our blue-chippers will undoubtedly fail. Which ones? Dunno. Maybe that means we should hang on to all of them, let half of them fail and become worthless, and keep the ones that work out. Maybe we'll just come up roses all around this time with Miller, Zunino and Franklin. All those guys will post OPS+ numbers of 120 next year and we'll cruise into contention. That's definitely the easy solution.
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If we're gonna run a lineup of 26-and-unders out there, how successful is that likely to be? We'll have 5 guys in that age range getting full-time ABs next year if Ackley, Seager, Franklin, Zunino and Miller all make the team. The only successful team I can think of in the last couple decades that started off that way was the 92 Indians.
The Bo Sox of the Rice/Lynn/Fisk era had a couple teams like that (won 99 games in 78) but those guys were young by age, not by seasons played. All those kids came up 3 years earlier - they were all 25, 26 with experience and success, not rubes just out of the minors. Also, their pitching staff was outstanding, to Sandy's point.
So if we're starting 5 guys under 27 and two more who just turned 27 (Saunders and Smoak)... who is leading that team to anything? Is that Franklin's job? "Hey rook, go show these guys how to win in the big leagues." I'm not all about veteran presence and grit, but those Bo Sox teams had Fisk who was already there and KILLING it as a HOFer.
The Royals have been trying it the last couple of years. The Giants are running out 4 dudes under 27 this year, but two of them are Kung Fu Panda and freakin Posey - not exactly raw.
Those 92 Indians are at least somewhat analagous. They didn't have as many babies as we have, but they had an entire lineup under 28 except for one dude. They finished league average on O ad 10 games under .500 with Belle and Lofton and Baerga and (Sandy) Alomar and Sorrento on that team.
Next year? League average O, 10 games under .500. Year after that? Well the year after that, Manny and Thome showed up and they started becoming a massive power - as you should with several serious HOF vote-getters in one offense.
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Honestly, if we carry it out AND it's successful, that's the blueprint. Scuffle a little longer, another year or two while Franklin and Seager and Zunino learn how to carry the O, then promote Choi/Wilson/Peterson (assuming they're working out, which the plan will need since Ackley and Smoak will be closing in on FA if they're even still here) and then become a force in 2016.
Assuming our young pitching comes through, and stays healthy, and Felix is still Felix.
*shrugs* It's definitely an option. "Hold all our young players" is playing for 2016, though, with hopefully some really interesting performances in the meantime. The good part is that even if the bats arean't ready to go for a year or two the arms MIGHT be able to come in for immediate impact.
But if the offense isn't ready for 2 more years, do you want to start the service time on all the arms?
This is the part of the game that Jack has to prove he has some idea of how to master: juggling all this talent and getting it to perform on the field without wasting service years just because we're in a bind. If we wanna run all the young arms out there to stop the bleeding, then I'd like some bats so they don't ALL get the Felix Treatment of 9 Ks, 2 runs given up, and the loss. Otherwise you're taking the opportunity to crush your young pitching staff under the burden of a dead-ball era offense.
If we're gonna run with all the young bats then I'd like to have some major vet monsters on the team to help buttress the offense while the kids come in underneath that tentpole and figure out how to be big-tops of their own.
If we're just gonna try to wing it with every under-27 player we can find and hope for the best, then I'm going to be watching a different manager and GM pick up (trade off?) the pieces in a year or two - or simply claim success once the plan does work out in 2016 and 2017 after some brutal flailing around next season.
Pick your poison.
~G
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