Per my imperfect memory: 1) Gutierrez was healthy & uninjured in 2009 and for the first half of 2010, 2) The IBS started in mid-2010, causing weight loss & loss of strength for the second half of 2010 & all of 2011. I don't recall any significant injuries for this 1.5 year period, 3) Cured of the IBS, in 2012 Gutierrez regained the lost weight & strength but tore a muscle in the upper body, experienced plantar fasciatis, and was beaned by a pick-off throw -- all these combining to make him miss 120 games. He played successfully in 20-30 2012 fall league games. We can now safely assume that the IBS is under control. A slightly riskier assumption is that the plantar fasciatis is under control, but let's assume that for now. We can safely dismiss the beaning as a 1-time event. So, if my memory serves, Gutierrez, in the last 4 years, has had one serious injury (the 2012 muscle tear) that may indicate vulnerability in 2013. But he has had no leg, shoulder, or elbow injuries in the last 4 years. Based on that re-ordering of his afflictions, it appears to me that Gutierrez has a better-than-commonly-perceived probability of getting through the 2013 season intact. As the M's are short quality MLB outfielders, a full 2013 season from him would be a major boost, and set the M's up to pick up his option in 2014. My $.02.