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For getting injured at a REALLY inconvenient time and preventing a more thorough evaluation of his worth. ;-)
Carp blew the year because he fell on his arm and later hurt himself again. With 500+ more ABs it would be much easier to tell what Carp is worth vs Smoak. But you can't keep everybody and like you said, there may be political capital at work with Smoak. Personally I would have kept Carp and demoted Smoak by designating him to AAA (he should still have an option left). That keeps all our options in house.
But Carp's injuries really screwed the pooch. Is he really talented? Was he really lucky for half a season? He's 27 years old so he should be in his prime. If anybody was gonna go somewhere else and light it up for 5 years, it should be him.
Of course there are a lot of those guys I would say had that potential, and few of them live up to it. Carp's separated shoulder could haunt us - but long-term only if Smoak isn't performing. Smoak had the same length of awesome performance that Carp did, he just has far more performance that makes us doubt that spark of awesomeness.
If Carp pulls a Kila Ka'aihue or Mike Jacobs, nobody is gonna miss him much. If he pulls a Mike Morse, then yes there will be missage.
If Smoak finally does what a man with his talent SHOULD DO, then we won't have to worry about Carp either way.
~G