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Adam Jones:
Age 18, MWL: .267/.314/.404/.717, 124K/33BB in 559 PAs
Age 19, Cal: .295/.374/.494/.868, 64K/29BB in 315 PAs
Julio Morban:
Age 19, MWL: .256/.315/.382/.697, 99K/26BB in 336 PAs
Age 20, Cal: .313/.361/.550/.911, 67K/21BB in 330 PAs
The year after Jones did that he was the #64 prospect in the land. He had more ABs and a higher profile thanks to his #1 pick status than does Morban, but I’m telling you, don’t sleep on Julio. He’s only behind Jones in age and experience thanks to injury.
Adam got HBP a lot, upping his OBP, but they have basically the same batting profile. Julio’s a lefty, however, which gives him an edge that Adam didn’t have. I'd take Adam's 3 WAR seasons from Morban starting in 2015 or so and call it a day for sure.
Hitters age 20 or under in the Cal League with a .850+ OPS since 2006 (Jones, our Wlad, Daric Barton and Billy Butler did it in 2005):
2006: Reid Brignac, SS – what Morban’s failed path might look like
2006: Cargo, OF – hanging in there against ML pitching
2007: Kyle Blanks, 1B – top 50 prospect, TJ injury issues
2007: Michael Saunders, OF – he’s doing all right
2008: Hank Conger, C - 2x top 100 BA prospect, arm issues.
2008: Yamaico Navarro, SS/3B – traded to 3 diff orgs
2008: Lars Anderson, 1B – 3x top 100 BA prospect, failing corner power
2009: Alex Liddi, 3B – lots of power, iffy glove, tweener
2009: Tyson Gillies, CF – cocaine bust + injury, posted .820 OPS in AA this year.
2010: Jaff Decker, LF – #13 Padres prospect (B- Sickels), recent injuries.
2011: Edinson Rincon, 3B/LF – #24 Padres prospect (C+), bad glove.
Morban plays CF pretty well, not some sloppy corner. The guy he comps to is Jones, or if you prefer a lefty then Cargo. Seriously, look out - it's a hard thing to do as a CF.
Other guys who did it in 2012, and where they place:
Joc Pederson, OF - #3 Dodgers prospect (B, borderline B+)
Domingo Santana, OF - #10 Astros prospect (B-)
Chris Owings, SS - #9 Padres prospect, (B-), bad plate approach
All those guys finished in the pack around Morban on the offensive charts in the Cal League. Morban will get his chance to prove he should have been ranked higher when he hits AA this year. Let's hope he does - and that he stays healthy. Health is really the thing slowing his ascent, not talent or performance.
~G