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I wonder why this principle doesn't get talked about more.
It's a light bulb that applies in all realms of life. A freshman class hits a university environment and some of them are very well prepared, scoring high grades as frosh, but that doesn't mean they'll have the raw brainpower to handle the tough stuff. Only after correcting for the high school background might you be able to forecast their outcomes three years on.
We should routinely include this factor in our discussions of low-level minors players; not sure why we don't.
BTW Gordon how does this apply to international signings? As a very broad rule, how does a Dominican teenager's background compare to that of a teenager from (say) Oregon?