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Vargas is under club control for only one more year and will likely make 7ish million dollars in arbitration. His ERA with us is around 4.10, but his xFIP is more like 4.50.
He's got an ERA over 5.20 career on the road, but it's 3.40 in Safeco. If ALL of that is the "floaty teacup in the sky" effect, then great! Nothing will ever land inside the park now that the LF and CF have less ground they need to cover, and Vargas will get even better.
I don't believe that will be the case. I don't need to dump Vargas - I've always been a fan of his competitive spirit, durability, and desire to be good - but I don't want to pay our 5th best rotation arm $7 million if there's a decent chance that his home numbers will no longer be able to save his road numbers.
If he was Erasmo, and was making $400k with 6 years of club control, this would not be a problem. But Erasmo has more upside, is currently better, AND is 6+ million cheaper. How do I send Erasmo back to the minors and keep Vargas when Jason might be losing the thing that makes him a viable #4-5 starter and is his only real leg up on the armada of blue-chippers about to hit our shores?
~G