Will cheerfully admit that I hadn't looked at Trout's luck stats in our 60-second POTD. Was simply a matter of watching a young (near-)Willie Mays on the field. Hmmmm, let's see...
HR/F for Trout: 21.4%. Well .... Hamilton sustains that, if you take away 2009. Dunn sustains 22, 24%. Cabrera's at 19% ...
Certainly you could dock Trout back to (say) 17% if you were so inclined, taking away what... 5 of his 22 homers. Turn 3 of those into warning-track outs and 2 into doubles and there go 12 of his 230 total bases, up in smoke. His SLG plummets from .593 to .562.
His BABIP is .389, definitely unsustainable, but as we know you're talking about functionally the fastest player in baseball, so ZIPS has him at .374 ... the leadoff hitters can sustain .350, .360 and guys who mash the ball are also high; Thome sustained .360 in his 20's ... I'd be kind of surprised if Trout didn't post .350 and .360 BABIP's the next several years... combining Thpome with Ichiro could land you at .380 rather than .350, though ...
Still and all, let's stipulate that .340/.400/.600 have seen some balls drop in, and that he's actually only been "worth" .300/.360/.525 ... which, as it happens, has been his 'floundering' month of August, a .366 OBP and .508 SLG which is his worst month ... judge Junior's 1990 by the worst month and what do you get...
.300/.360/.525, at the age of 20, playing CF and stealing 50-60 bases, scoring 120 runs ... how does that compare to Junior at 20?
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Like we said originally, there's a downside scenario for Trout. He hasn't established himself as a HOF'er. He could turn out to be Fred Lynn.
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