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1) My point about the 91 catch decline was not to say the decline was all Ichiro's fault.  My point in regard to that stat was that said decline is completely and totally invisible to the casual fan.  Without stats, no fan can "tell" the difference between a 200 vs. 300 catch season for any RF. 
2) If age 37 is the problem, then we should see this catastrophic physical decay --- > reflected in his SB's and speed scores, right?
No.  It is a different skill set.  Not every fast base runner is a good defender and vice versa.  How many SBs did Guti get in 2009 when he was running a 2.9 defensive WAR?  Barry Bonds had 7 steals without getting caught at age 38 -- and was 5 for 5 at age 42.  Yes, Ichiro is still fast.  But, he is also very, very smart.  He can probably "think" his way to an extra 15-20 steals a year - if he's motivated.  IMO, his poor offensive and defensive numbers were in fact a motivating force that made him more aggressive in regards to SBs.  His 262 hit year was one of his worst in terms of total SBs, (only 36 stolen - and caught 11).  It is important to remember that in addition to his defensive collapse, his infield hit total swooned also. 
The longer term look - in regards to speed - look at his 3B totals starting at age 31:
2005 - 12
2006 - 9
2007 - 7
2008 - 7
2009 - 4
2010 - 3
2011 - 3
The only season in his first 5 with less than 8 triples was 2004 - his 262 hit year.
My real point here is that Ichiro can still be fast ... but still suffer defensively.  But, as is normal with HoF caliber players, Ichiro *can* (and did) adjust to his aging where he can.  The arena where he has the most control over chances is SBs.  He doesn't control how many balls are hit to RF.  He does largely control how often and in what conditions he attempts SBs.
3) Utlimately - while I do expect all things being equal, 2012 would "normally" be an excellent candidate for a bounceback season for an aging superstar, I see many variables working against Ichiro in this regard - mostly psychological:
Unwillingness to look foolish -- goes counter to defensive rebound
Move to 3rd in order - goes counter to BABIP rebound
Unwillingness to rest -- exacerbates issues with aging
Distate for walks -- limits arenas for late career adjustment
Many greats who start declining extend their careers by becoming more selective.  They have the experience to know what they can hit "well" - so they start holding up on borderline swings they might have taken in the past.  Ichiro has a unique distaste for walking.  I believe the RBI slot in the lineup is more apt to enhance his weaknesses.  More men on first will cut down on infield hits - reduce his SB opportunities - and encourage him to try and get hits rather than draw walks.  The change in lineup will also draw most of his attention, thereby naturally suppressing concentration and conern about his defensive performance.
The subtle truth about Ichiro is this --- he has been staving off decline by utilizing his speed.  For his career, Ichiro has 569 infield hits out of 2428 total hits.  That's 23.43% of his hits have been infield hits.  As a rookie: 23.96%.  In his 262 year: 21.75%.  But, his two biggest seasons for infield hits were 2009 and 2010: 
2009 - 63 of 225 = 28.0%
2010 - 64 of 214 = 29.9%
In 2011, it was 42 of 184 = 22.82%
He was HIDING his age-releated decline by accentuating his speed.  That's precisely what hall of famers do.  Except, his speed didn't save him in 2011.  He has GIDP in 5% of chances for his career.  It was 12% in 2011. 
He has lost a step.  But, in SBs ... he can use experience and guile to overcome that.  What he cannot do is get that step back on grounders.  He might be able to get 'some' of that step back in the OF, if he had room to better position himself, or 'cheat' in certain situations.  But, he was likely maxed out with reading and positional skills before the decline, (precisely why he was the best RF around). 
My sense is that while a 'typical' Hall of Famer at this age could access some unused optimizations, I think Ichiro is almost unique in the psychology that underlies his skills.  He can't improve his conditioning routine at age 38, because his conditioning has always been top flight.  He cannot be more selective at the plate, because it simply is too far removed from his basic psychology of what "success" is at the plate.  He cannot 'try harder' in the OF, because he spent his career maximizing every other aspect of defense to be great - and is inately opposed to "effort" based defense, (diving for balls).
In the end, where other great hitters could "tweak" their way to an extra few years, I think Ichiro, being the consumate tweaker is more likely to be limited.  He's been tweaking all along to maximize his production.  That limits the doors to open that might stem the tide of age.  This is why I think he tried - and abandoned - the Ackley swing. 
I'll be more than happy if I'm wrong.  I used to make hay each year drafting bounce back years from aging players in fantasy ball in the mid-rounds.  In Ichiro's case specifically, I think his psychology - coupled with the move in the lineup - both work against his odds of having a 'major' bounce.
I think his upside this year is a 100 OPS+, with something in the low to mid 90s the likely result, (which is better than last season, but still not good).  And I think his ceiling for 2012 is probably +7 runs, while his bottom is probably -7 runs.  That would put expectation at roughly zero.  Still competent.  Better than replacement level, but an aggregate of something like 1.0 offensive WAR and 0.0 defensive WAR.  I think his "upside" might be 3.0 WAR ... but his likely is closer to 1.0.