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Because Elway is beyond the ceiling of Tebow.  Quite a bit beyond. Yes Elway struggled in his first two years.  And yes, even in his prime Elway was not a Favre/Marino/Brady caliber quarterback. Still he had a Hall of fame career and that was not an accident.  You could see potiential for it before he was drafted.  Elway had already succeeded in a pass first, throw it down the field system.
Don't we see this all the time in baseball?  Two similar looking kids knock in 25 dingers in AA and the scouts tell us kid A is maxed out and kid B could be something special.
I'm terrible at comps so bear with me.  Elway was a bit like Matt Thornton.  You look at the build, the delivery, the velocity and you say man, I'm hangin on to this kid. Cause if ever gets some control, look out!  Tebow is the same kid with the same lack of command but with completely awful mechanics and an 89 mph fastball. There's just to much to straighten out and the payoff's not there.  
That's all assuming a traditinal NFL offense.  If we're looking at Tebow having an NFL career running the option he may well put up Elway like numbers but he won't be getting there the same way.
Or not. As you said, we'll see.
 
Regarding Dungy, Gruden, Ditka and the rest? 
The only talking heads I've seen saying Tebow has the NFL talent are ex coaches.  Not scouts or former players, just coaches.  So first of all I'm convinced that they look at Tebow and see their favorite linebacker.  Coaches always have a better relationship with their linebackers thant they do their QB's.  :-)  I'm only half joking.  How many coaches would give a right arm to have an LB playing QB?
Top level coaches are arrogantly confident in their own abilitys.  Very common at the top levels of any endevor.  They believe they can coach around the shortcomings of any idividual player as long as they know the true ability of that player and the player will actually give it.  Nothing gives a coach more fits than designing a game plan according to a QB's abilty and then having that QB deliver at half his ability because he's sulking or distracted. cough, cough Cutler! cough, cough.
Coaches want a quarterback to be tough, fearless, a leader of men, never quit, give his all and consistent in his performance whatever that lever of performance is.  They can create a game plan around that!  Tebow does deliver on those points. Those traits aren't always there in the guys with all the physical tools. The confident coach thinks he can fix the physical flaws of Tebow easier than fixing the make up flaws of more talented guys.
Tebow is tough, smart, never quits, a truly great leader and can be counted on to fearlessly give his all to his very last breath and in the eyes of a lot of coaches that makes him football player.