Ahhh ... a former Brave. I'm in my wheelhouse now.
Millwood had (has?) exceptional skill and talent. Always. He was the John Smoltz understudy back in the day. But, Millwood's problem was NEVER ability. It was always, (and remains), CON-SIS-TEN-CY. He ain't got it. Never did. Never will. And this is why even under the miracle eye of Leo Mazzone, the Braves could never get the goods out of Kevin that his talent promised. And that's why they let him walk (to the Phillies? Seriously?).
Millwood's limitation was (and still is) above the neck not below it. What SHOULD have been done with Millwood is what was done with Smoltz. If someone had made him a closer, (perfect MLB spot for neurotics), Millwood might well have been racking up 40 saves a year for the last decade. Probably too late for that experiment at this point, though.
For a team with a decent offense, Millwood could still be a .500 pitcher. Because he'll pitch well enough to win about half the time and the other half ... well ... It's not that he implodes ... he's got too much ability to really implode. He's not Jeff Weaver ... a guy who tended to live 3 pitches in the past. Millwood is more the guy who lives 15 minutes in the future. He'll lose focus ("Gee, do I want steak after the game or seafood?" "Oh, Crap, I just gave up three runs!"), then pull it back together.
So, he'll eat innings. But, he won't throw shutouts because he literally cannot stay focused for 3 hours at a stretch. For his career he has 5 ... (3 came in his age 28 season with the Phillies in 2003). He hasn't thrown one since. That's 230 starts ago.
Going to Texas was a disaster waiting to happen because you just cannot afford to let your mind wander in Arlington, (and playing without a defense certainly didn't help). But, the Ranger offense scored reliably, so he was still a .500 pitcher, just with a lousy ERA. But, if he came to Seattle, he'd likely have results a lot like his Baltimore season (4-16 with a 5.10 ERA). He's *ALWAYS* going to give up 2 or 3 runs, but rarely 6 or more. But with a weak offense, he's going to lose almost every start.
In the right setting with the right manager with the perfect catcher all working together to try and keep him focused, Millwood might still be able to put together one more magical season. But I don't think Seattle is where that would happen. In Seattle, he'd pitch on a pace to throw 190 innings, with something like a 4.75 ERA while going 4-20 on the season.
Millwood's path to greatness needed to be pitching one inning a day. If Z wants to bring him in and make him closer .... ahhh, well a man can daydream. Oh, wait ... that's kind of the problem, isn't it?
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