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.500 or less for Texas would take a lot of significant injuries. I'd have it at 5-10%.
The problem is even with that unlikely scenario, we'd likely still finish behind them or Anaheim unless the Ms have a strong 2nd half.
I think the chances of the Ms finishing .500 or less in the 2nd half is better than coinflip.It would take something like a 90% finish for the Ms and a 10% finish for the Rangers, and maybe a 35% finish from Anaheim to pull it off.
Its not impossible. Its something you can root for it, but you should still be building your team with an eye on the future. Any moves made in 2011 to win now need also be for the future as well.
I think that 4-gamer with Texas after the all-star break is important.