Coug's memory is faulty, I'm afraid, in re: Raul Ibanez.
His first two months in 2007 were painful compared to his normal...but he hit this slash line:
.282/.341/.391
Not this slash line:
.177/.316/.203
I hope the difference there is clear. :)
And at his age, Ibanez had not drifted into old-man skill territory. He was still hitting more doubles than homers (he was a topspin line drive hitter, not a towering fly ball hitter like Cust), still had a BABIP of .300, still had a 21% LD rate...the slump in July was mostly bad BABIP and HR/Fly luck...there were many reasons to think Ibanez might not be done.
The Sexson example tracks a LITTLE better...but even Sexson was hitting this slash line after June of 2006:
.206/.276/.355
Not this slash line (it bears repeating)
.177/.316/.203
There was still POP in Sexson's bat after the bad start. There is absolutely ZEEEEERRRRROOOO pop in Cust's bat right now. NONE. Both of the XBH he's got so far were lucky bloops...his LD% might as well be zero.
And I would argue that the bad start in 2006 for Sexson did portend the end was nigh...he recovered and hit well the rest of that year, but the same kind of bad start in 2007 was the end of the line for Sexy (except that time, the pop dropped). I would also argue that Sexson was physically more impressive in 2006 than Cust is now. Cust looks like a fat old man compared to Sexson '06. Did you see the way he almost impailed himself on his own leg when sliding into second base to break up a double play a week or so ago? Or the way he really turned on that second afterburner and made it all the way from first to third...on a double off the CENTER FIELD FENCE!!!!! ten days ago? The man is doner than done...there's no way in Hades that he ever recovers.
The sad thing is that his BABIP (currently .280!!) is not even unlucky...and he's hitting .177. He's NOT HITTING INTO BAD LUCK...and hitting .177. I can't think of a better way to say someone's done than that.
Or you could just watch his next at bat...wait til he gets into yet another hitter's count (3-1, 2-0)...and then watch him load up to yank a fastball...and hit another two-hopper to RCF for an easy groundout into that shift or pop-fly to shallow RF, or foul it back lazily.
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