Here's why I don't put much faith in first-year eye results for latin ballplayers.
From a conversation with BA's inestimable Conor Glassey about Guillermo Pimentel over on Marinercentral.com:
Guillermo Pimentel gets a lot of love despite his atrocious eye rating. Is this another Greg Halman thing where the physical tools are such that the pitch recognition issues are overlooked, or does he have a legit shot to cure that eye rating at the next level?
I would give him a full season or two before we start to worry about his strikeout-to-walk ratio. No, it's not ideal, but you have to remember this is a 17-year-old kid playing in the states for the first time, trying to make a good impression. They don't learn how to walk because most of their baseball is played in the showcase format - throw from the outfield, take BP, run as fast as you can…show off your tools. They don't play a lot of actual games. The tools really stand out, which is why he ranks so highly.
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Very little game time. Nobody it throwing it in on your hands or trying to make you look stupid. They're all sprinting 40 yards and throwing the ball from deep CF and taking BP like crazy, but it's not organized games and let's not talk about furthering strikezone judgment.
It's why guys like Vlad Guerrero are so amazing to me: he has atrocious strikezone judgment and his is as big as a house. He just hits all the pitches anyway. Sometimes freakish talent can overcome a poor initial approach. You should know after a couple of years, but year one, in the AZL where zones and such are questionable anyway? I give a pass on that and look to a league with more structure for a better indicator of growth in that area.
They say Morban has freakish talent. I hope that talent includes the ability to read a breaking pitch and shore up that eye ratio soon. Pimentel too (who came on strong after an atrocious start).
~G
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