Just like 10.4 hits/9 is meaningless ... in a vacuum.
Your argument is PRECISELY the one that says French is BETTER than Fister. In 2009, he started executing his pitches and put up great numbers.
The 7:1 is meaningless, because it is driven almost exclusively by the WALK - not the K. *SILVA* produced a 7.89 K/BB ratio in 2005 against Major League hitters, over 188 innings. Did that make HIM a pitcher worth having? Bavasi thought so. Congratulations, you're analyzing pitchers with Bavasi deftness. (Okay - that's probably a bit overboard - but Silva does make my next point).
Is the 7:1 K/BB repeatable? Did anything previous in SILVA's resume suggest he'd reproduce 7:1? Is there anything previous in Fister's resume to suggest he will?
A 7:1 K/BB is pretty much an automatic indication of abberation.
The tell on Fister is that his K/BB had *ZERO* to do with Ks. His walk total plunged from 45 to 12. His K rate didn't budge (okay - it went DOWN slightly - but close enough to not matter).
Yes, Fister, in Tacoma, reduced his walks. He didn't increase his Ks. He didn't decrease his HRs. He DID increase his hits allowed to 11.2.
Is it REASONABLE to assume that Fister is going to produce anything remotely close to 7:1 in the majors - when he did so for four months, against AAA hitters? If a phenom gets a new pitch - or previously had really bad control, and it gets better - okay, fine, put more weight on the recent numbers, (like with French). But, there's no evidence there of that. The ONLY difference in Fister's AAA line from what came before is that his plus control went into the off-the-charts-unsustainable below-1 area. Great. He can put the ball over the plate, no matter how small the strike zone is on a given day.
French posted a 1.11 WHIP with Toledo before his '09 callup from Detroit. Fister's WHIP was 1.34 at Tacoma.
French saw his hits allowed plunge from 10.3 to 7.8 when his Ks spiked from 4.7 to 7.9.
Numerically, French's AAA spike looks a LOT more like a new pitcher. Fister's looks like umpires liked calling strikes for him.
Numerically, Fister is Jaku all over again -- except with even weaker "stuff".
You want a 'tell' for a AAA pitcher whose stuff is hard to pick up? It'll show up in ungodly hit/9 numbers.
This is where I think the SABR-group-think falls apart. Many of the formulas work because the pool of talent is ALL within the boundary limits of minimum talent required. So, Voros' take that pitchers don't control BIP results is essentially true. But, lots of prospects are NOT within that boundary - so they defy the standard paradigms.
Go look at any minor league pitchers you want. Go look at their career hit/9.
Washburn - 8.8
RRS - 8.8
Vargas - 8.8
Bedard - 6.9
Snell - 8.0
Felix - 7.2
Silva - 10.5 (9.8 before callup)
Fister - 10.4 (11.2 before callup)
For minor leaguers - you check the hit/9 and see if they're in the 'normal' range of 8-9 for decent talent. If so - fine - move on to the TTO numbers, and have fun. But guys outside that range (on either side), are the ones where you can pick up on stuff the TTO numbers miss.
Silva was white-knuckles BARELY good enough to stick in the majors - and lucked onto a team with excellent defense. He survived the 11 hits per game seasons for awhile. (Just like HoRam - whose minor league hit/9 was 9.6).
Being 2 walks better than other pitchers doesn't gain anything, if you're two HITS worse. That is the reality with Fister. AT BEST, I think Fister might survive as a long man, so long as nobody gets a second look at him. (.740 OPS 1st look - .804 2nd thus far in the majors). But, honestly, I don't think his stuff meets "minimum entrance" level - because if he's giving up 11.4 hits per game against AAA bats - he's not going to survive against MLB hitters for long.
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