In defense of "big hitters" who are projected to have more power than those who slugged at least as much as them with the metal...
The sheer whip of a metal bat can help those with good bat-speed using the lighter bats to crush balls that they won't be able to hit as big leaguers, and can over-inflate their future potential a bit.
Alternately, some guys can have a power-outage of sorts with metal bats. I think Raben is/was like that. Some big guys can't fully get the hang of a light, whippy bat. It's like a toothpick to them. They need a more solid wood one in their hands to make the right kind of contact because they're overswinging with this tiny thing in their hands. Raben's a guy I expect to have MORE power with a wood bat, especially compared to his metal-bat peers, and so he's somebody I'd rate higher in the future-power department even with his somewhat-pedestrian college lines (partially influenced by injury as well). I just hope his knee is okay. Watching Kenyon Martin pull down double-doubles every night these days with two microfracture-repaired knees gives me hope. :)
But the WAY Raben was swinging a metal bat and his immediate jump to the head of the class in the summer when they put a heavier bat in his hands made me curious - there are other big guys who do that who also make me curious.
BTW, Ackley was doing fine in the Cape Cod league with wood bats before his TJ surgery was required (by "fine" I mean "Ackley is the best hitter I've seen on the Cape since (Mark) Teixeira,” per his manager Steve Englert).
As for "production against his peers" w/r/t Ackley...Just to play Devil's Advocate for a second, let me give you the following line put up for a good Pac-10 team that's often a CWS contender:
Junior year: .394 with 18 doubles, 8 triples and 10 HRs as a MIF, Pac-10 player of the year, etc. His name was Willie Bloomquist, and until Ackley's Junior year power surge you could compare as slap hitters who are "gamers" etc.
For his CAREER Willie hit .394. There wasn't anything Bloomie couldn't get that bat around on in college.
Ackley's sophomore year: .417, 21 2B, 4 3B and 7 HR. I can understand doubts, even though I no longer have them. His power showed up the next year and that was my ONLY question with him.
I understand those who looked at his first couple of years and said "marginal power." Or at his Junior year and said, "lucky flies for HRs."
With his batspeed though that he MAINTAINS with wood, it's not luck. When he fills out, look out. He's a PLAYER. And now that his elbow is healthy, we're likely to continue to see many excellent things from him.
2010 should be a fabulous minor league campaign for him. Fingers crossed. :)
~G
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