Add new comment

Not 380.  The 380 was on his Safeco HRs of equivalent trajectory...the neutral distance HR adjustment was 400.
And I'm not pulling this out of nowhere...it's coming from pure PHYSICS.  Incidentally, you claim that he hits line drive HRs...but hit tracker data says his upward trajectory on impact is about the same as league average.  So...you're not right about that either.
I don't think 25 OPS points down is "reasonable"...I claim 60-100 points will come off the moment he moves from Coors to a pitcher's park.  The actual data backs my claim.  All you have is a mancrush and a bunch of assumptions.  Oh and the hope that because he's still relatively young...he'll grow new skill.
Incidentally...do you imagine it's an accident that four of his five longest HRs last year happened at Coors?  And the other one happened at the second worst launching pad in the NL?