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There exists a roughly 10% chance that Matt Tuiasosopo out-produces Adrian Beltre in 2010 (some of the runs are from defense too, y'know) and another 15% chance that their value is comparable...with 3/4 of the odds going against Tui...possibly strongly.
I would put my midline bet at something like:
BELTRE - 2.0 WAR (.270/.330/.460, +10 defensive runs)
TUI: - 0.5 WAR (.250/.310/.420, 0 defensive runs)
I also think the odds of Beltre accepting arbitration depend entirely on how happy he was as a Mariner in 2009 vs. how much he wants a multi-year contract right away.  Accepting arby means he gets a 1-year deal, which is always stressful, but maybe in Beltre's mind, he's still only 31 and will get another crack at that second multi-year deal in a year and a shot at playing the whole season healthy and pumping up his value.  If I were in Beltre shoes...having just had one of the most fun seasons of my life despite being hurt for most of it, I would be weighing how muchh Safeco hurts my future vs. how much joy playing for the Mariners is bringing me.  I would probably think rather confidently that I had other years to get the multi-year contract signed.  I would accept arbitration.  But Beltre's agent is (gulp) Scott Boras.  Which changes the equation.  Boras doesn't care about happiness.  He's pure evil incarnate.
So what are the real odds that Beltre accepts arbitration?  That would depend on what you think the odds are that Boras gets hit by a flaming meteorite.
In that universe...where Beltre and Tui are very uinlikely to be even particularly close to even in value and where Beltre is unlikely to accept arby...it's stupid NOT to offer it to him.