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Then of course you offer him arb.
Boras is canny enough to put off FA one year, if Beltre's horrible 2009 is going to slash his FA market value.
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It doesn't do us any good to simply gauge Tui's chances to be better than Beltre. We're talking about win-per-DOLLAR.
If Tui's worth 0.5 wins, free, and Beltre's worth 2.0 wins, $13m, then Beltre is costing you $9m per marginal win.