was this:
Using those initial assumptions, I figured a “20 point indicator score” for every player in major league history who had 400 or more plate appearances in a season. Some people had to be thrown out of the study for one reason or another, of course—probably for making out on the school bus—and I wound up with a field of a little more than 16,000 players who could be studied. - p. 78.
............
Are you saying that Bill's system works perfectly for 1876-2009, but that you expect baseball to change now?
That his system was fine for predicting 2006-to-2007 transitions, but you don't like its chances to be accurate for 2009-to-2010? Is that what you're saying?
If that's the case, why put any credence in any statistical measurement of performance over the period 1876-2009? Maybe OBP will not be predictive over the next time period, either.
..............
I missed the "specific reason" that you grant James' system's accuracy for 1860-2009 but disallow its relevance for 2010. Could you re-state your "specific reason" for this skepticism?
Add new comment
1