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And given that HR/Fly is notoriously volatile, it is difficult to make any assumptions on whether a one-year change was luck or a changed approach. On the one hand...the volatilty of HR/FLy argues for Lopez' high mark being luck...on the other hand, it cautions the user not to make assumptions about the player's career averages in previous seasons since it's very sensitive to changes in the batter's swing trajectory that won't necessarily always present themselves in changes in FB% or LD%.