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One problem here is that the majority of research trendlines are based on large groups of (often) very disperate hitting types.  And as you narrow down focus on groups closer in style, the sample sizes shrink, so the reliability of conclusions swoons, also.
The reality is that a truth for a group can *NEVER* be completely applied to any individual.  Each player is different -- and even when the numbers line up perfectly in sync with the theories and postulates, suddenly in year X you see something completely unexpected.  When Sexson first swooned, it was due to a massive drop in BABIP ... which was almost universally accepted by the math crowd as 'unluckiness'.  He never recovered.  Sexson is the PROOF that BABIP isn't "always" luck.
With Lopez, absent any other data, I could easily agree with Taro's luck assessment.  But we DO have extra info.  We have the knowledge from Lopez himself that after he returned from the latest family tragedy, he CHANGED his approach.  His spike in performance directly follows that stated change. 
That said ... even though his year-long 2009 numbers aren't far off his 2008 ... his HOME/ROAD splits for 2009 are 100% out of whack with everything he'd done before 2009.  Prior to 2009, he had no significant home/away skew.  In 2009, he suddenly became a monster on the road, and suffered at home.   He DID become a different hitter in 2009, which clouds the utility of the pre-2009 data.
When I add his 2009 changes, the knowledge that they were DECISION-related, and pile on the fact that he did this at 25, when normal peak age is 27 ... I see Lopez having a potentially better 2010 and 2011.  And, if he maintains the new road edge, come 2011 ... THEN he should have major, (instead of minor), value on the open market. 
There's one other thing.  He's had zero growth in patience ... and no, he's never going to walk 70 times in a season.  But, I believe for the first time, his head is at a place where it may be possible for him to be taught to lay off ONE PITCH.  Doesn't matter which one.  His change in approach was based on pitch-recognition.  If he gets that one tiny improvement, picks up 5 or 6 walks ... the big payoff isn't in walks.  The big payoff is in getting slightly better pitches to hit.
Aaron Hill could've been sold as a 'sell high' candidate after his 17-HR age-25 season.  And for what it's worth, (not much), on Aaron Hill's comparability chart - Jose Lopez is #1.