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Yes, but I used Lopez's career BABIP lines to adjust his '09, not an arbitrary group total.
The fact of the matter is, if you buy into Lopez '09 HR total as his true talent level you HAVE to buy into his higher HR/FB% in '09. Theres just no other way around it. He was actually 'less' patient in '09 than in previous seasons, and his other skills were not that far off from the norm.
Aaron Hill is actually a hitter I expect a HUGE regression from. The interesting thing is that Hill's average HR distance improved in '09, but definetly not enough to support 30+HRs. I'd bet on a MASSIVE regression there, much larger than that of Lopez'. The low end of 20-25 HRs for HIll in '10 is a safe bet considering the ballpark, and a mark in the high teens wouldn't suprise me either.
I actually don't think theres much of a difference between Lopez and Hill. Hill is a 'tad' better (better patience+FB%), but the advantage in raw power can be explained by park. Both guys had UP years in HR production IMO; Hill significantly so.