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...I am pretty hard-core with the SABR-analysis.  And as you should know...Ron Shandler is not.  He's a numbers guy, but that doesn't make him a scientist when it comes to this sort of discussion.  Ron Shandler is a gamer...he's figured out some patterns that help him find diamonds in the rough for playing fantasy baseball.  There's nothing wrong with starting there in your analysis, but this is an example of the kind of player Shandler will screw up on every single time...as was Ichiro.  A real sabermetrician is not going to overlook a sky sky SSKKKKYYYYYY high HR rate with a simple "HR/Fly correction should help" line.  A real sabermetrician knows that if you're talking about a pitcher with a sky high K/BB and a HR/Fly that's marginal, then maybe he can tick that HR rate down a hair, but not for guys whose HR rate is twice the league.  A 2 HR/9 is not some statistical abberation...it's a fatal FATAL flaw.
I'll bet the farm SUPER-low on Petit.