I see what you are getting at, now that I flip over to Fangraphs. They've got him, mistakenly, at +1.4 WAR based on about 70% of a season's time. Presumably that is where you're getting your +2.0 full season.
A .229/.302/.357 shortstop, with an above-average mitt, is going to be lucky to hold a starting job AS a replacement-level player, much less get paid $8M as a guy 2 wins better than replacement.
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I don't know whether the "bleed" here is in fangraphs' Replacement, or Positional, or simply that a bunch of SS's had lousy years with the bat, or what.
But stop and take a breath for a second. If J.J. Hardy were a +2.0 WAR shortstop making $5M, don't you think the Brewers would have gotten serious offers on him?
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Whatever Fangraphs' replacement numbers said in 2009, GMs know that 230/300/350 with a good mitt can be picked up off the scrap heap in AAA. That's not +2.0 WAR; it's 0.0 WAR, whatever Fangraphs says.
We run into James' Johnny Bench rule here: if a defensive system calls Johnny Bench a bad catcher, the defensive system is wrong.
If a numerical system calls J.J. Hardy's 2009 season +2 wins, the numerical system got it wrong.
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I don't like Hardy less than most. I like him the same as all 30 GM's. Let's not forget that both of our theories just received the experimental feedback of a MLB-GM bidding war.
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