That's the real point of all this.
How MANY factors are there into being a superstar CF - and how large each factor is relative to the rest. Do I deny raw speed is a factor? No. It is certainly *A* factor. The question is, among the dozen different factors that go into making a hall of fame defender, what chunk of the pie does it get?
Speed, Jump, Route, Effort, Smarts, hands, eyesight, leaping ability, extension, health, general athleticism, arm ... (that's all I could come up with in 60 seconds).
If we arbitrarily put a 8.25 value on each trait, and rank each on a scale of 1 to 10, then the difference between a speed 8 and a speed 10 CF is what a two percent difference in results? Heck, I didn't even list positioning, (unless that's included in smarts), or concentration. That's the problem. We do NOT know what all the factors are - much less how much weight each one carries.
I know the NFL puts a premium on speed for WRs. But, I've watched enough football to know that many clubs, (perhaps the bulk of the NFL) severely UNDERRATES *hands*. Just like patience, they pretend that they can teach "hands" to a guy who is fast. Yet, every other year it seems some speed-burner comes in who can't catch a bus. It is only AFTER you have remarkable hands that remarkable speed becomes really important. That slow white guy Steve Largeant was best of all time for awhile. But "hands" is really hard to measure. Speed is really easy to measure.
But, my biggest problem with speed assessment is that triples are a part of the equation. This is just six ways of dumb, because the PRIMARY aspect of triples isn't speed - it's being left-handed. In 2008, the AL, despite lefty hitters getting 9,000 fewer ABs, lefties hit 62 MORE triples. Is the triple value in the speed score adjusted by how many hits to RF were hit? No. Which is why it is utterly and completely useless, (actually worse than useless - it is inherently disruptive to accurate measurement).
And, of course, stealing bases isn't solely about speed. It's about reading pitchers. Barry Bonds, on horrid knees, long after his speed was gone, was still able to steal 7 bases a season without ever getting caught. I wonder what Barry's speed score at age 39 was - when he had 3 triples and 6-SBs, (only caught once). Well, the right-handed Guttierez only gets 2 triples a season, and only stole 9 times with 3 caught. I guess that means Gut is slower than Bonds at 39. (Okay, I'm over-the-top with the sarcasm today). But, AT BEST, speed scores are "suggestive". They aren't even remotely close to definitive. So, I by and large ignore them.
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