SANDY-RALEIGH SAYS:
Doc, I know you've been ragging on the offense from day one. And I'm not suggesting that there isn't reason to be concerned. But, in all honesty, I think at this point you may be seeing what you want to see instead of what is.
FACT: End of week 3, team had a 77 OPS+FACT: End of week 4, team had an 86 OPS+
In a single week, the TEAM brought its OPS+ up 9 points. This was in conjunction with the swoon of Endy Chavez back to his normal levels. That 86 team OPS+ INCLUDES a year-long OPS from Endy of barely over 700. The club - AS IS - has only one full-timer "clearly" over what is expected, (Branyan). F-Gut is over his career numbers, (today he's at .821), but as a 26-year-old, there is nothing he is producing RIGHT NOW that looks obviously transient.
As of today, (after the poor showing against the Rangers), the OPS+ has dipped a hair (84). But, you've got Branyan "likely" to slip some. And F-gut - (the skeptic could say he's over-producing, but from my perspective that would be a reach -- he "may" be overproducing, but he also "may" be finally putting together the tools and talent and getting the production that has been expected for the last few years. Doing this at age 26 would NOT be a reach).
So, what does that leave?
CA: Johnson (46) and Joh (62). A rookie, "likely" to improve, but have peaks and valleys, and a vet who "lost it" last year - but who seems to have found what he lost since returning from the DL. EITHER of these guys could add 40 points to their current OPS+ figures without it being a reach. But, I'll be REALLY pessimistic and say that combined the two only improve 20 points total.
2B: Lopez (73) - does ANYONE think Jose has regressed this far? Another 30 points from Lopez is almost a given - another 50 if he actually breaks out.
3B: Beltre (39) - here's another 70 points of OPS that we can EXPECT to return. Beltre has had MULTIPLE months just as bad as April since with Seattle. He has always been a streak hitter. He was not centering pitches for most of April, (ridiculous infield fly rate), but seems to have started driving the ball the last week. Yes, the ones to the track are annoying, but that is mostly a GOOD sign - because that was not what he was doing early.
SS: Yubet (76) - Yes, this could be his real line for the season - but his OPS+ figures for his career have gone: 80, 86, 93, 85. "Same old" Yuni is still 10 points under his production level.
RF: Ichiro (90) - Best returning hitter on the club missed the first week, and 26 points under his career OPS, and 12 points under his worst season ever, ('02). Personally, his two early HRs had given me some initial hope that he might've rediscovered his power stroke. Honestly, I think that unlikely, but still believe he's AT LEAST 10 points under his season-long production level.
LF: Endy (89) / Wlad (126) - Endy is back down to expectation levels. But Wlad is showing just about every sign possible that he has SERIOUSLY improved as a hitter. That 126 is probably high. But, with a cooled off Endy bat, Wlad earns more PT, and if he "only" turns out to be a 110 producer, that's still additional offensive production compared to month 1, hard to quantify due to the aggregate nature - but another 10 points of combined OPS here doesn't seem unreasonable.
DH: Griffey (76) / Sweeney (88) -- Probably the best argument you have for a bat to replace. Then again, what is YOUR projection for this platoon? I could accept an 88 being about right for Sweeney. But I'm not ready to buy the concept that Griffey is completely done - even when healthy. I think a 95 OPS from Griffey is a reasonable (and conservative) estimate of what his side of that platoon can do over the whole season. Of course, I was thinking you were the guy with the position that Griffey needed to be starting in LF instead of Endy.
CA: +20; 2B: +30; 3B: +70; SS: +10; RF: +10; LF +10; DH +10
That's 160 points of additional OPS from 7 spots in the order. How much does that offset the 160 point drop from Branyan? Since it's 7 guys compared to 1, I'd say the REASONABLE expected improvement in offensive production completely overwhelms what Branyan is likely to surrender. Just like the club ALREADY did when Endy swooned, the improvement from multiple bats didn't just make up for the swoon, they turned the results into an aggregate gain.
But, why talk about what is to come:
Seattle team OPS+ over last 7 days = 101; over last 14 = 97.
"Maybe" the team offense is only a mid-90s OPS+. But, the team is already a mid-80s OPS+ team with SEVEN (7) positions performing below expectation. If only 5 of those bats get to where they should be, the team is mid-to-upper 90s. If all 7 come around, there is ZERO reason this offense cannot produce a year BETTER than the team in 2007.
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