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I would bet that you get Carson, then Bush then Kasich....
If either Kasish or Bush (especially Bush) overperfom in SC it would give them some reason to hang on until the SEC events coming up in March, If Bush underperforms in SC (where he brought out the big Bush guns), it is hard to see a path to a win, even in a brokered convention, where Rubio would be the likely pick.
Kasich might hang on a bit, but there is too much of the small college professor in him (not an insult by the way) to ignite the crowd. Small college professors are often beloved by those that get to know them (Kasich in Ohio) but that doesn't always translate to the bigger audience.
He will hang on, trying his luck in the west/mid-west.
But tonight is a pretty big night.