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 If you know of a way to make minor league pitching numbers highly predictive, you're ahead of me.   Over time, "numbers" will emerge measuring stuff like average fastball velocity, spin rates, deceptivity and location.   THOSE numbers will be predictive from a fairly early point in a pitcher's career.   The "older" minor league numbers (wins, losses, strikeouts, walks, ERA). . .I don't think those are ever going to contribute a whole lot to pitcher predictability.  

 

I was talking to a couple of scouts earlier this week at a game. . .I hope I'm not out of line sharing this with you, but I don't think they would mind and I don't think I am harming the Red Sox in any way by sharing this with you.   There was a pitcher on the mound, and the scout said that several years ago he filed a report on this pitcher, back when the pitcher was in A ball or rookie ball, saying that (a) he throws 94 to 96 consistently, (b) his slider is terrific, and (c) his career isn't going anywhere.   He said he felt odd filing that report, that a pitcher with two tremendous pitches wasn't going to go anywhere, but you could just tell.   The guy had a long, loopy delivery that wasn't conducive to command, and he just thought he would fight himself on the mound for the rest of his career.   And he has.   He could go out to Double-A and dominate at Double-A and it wouldn't mean anything, because he's not going to learn to do what he has to do at the major league level.   It's a complicated equation.   You have to put a lot of things together to reach real understanding.