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1) There is no indication that Cruz is hitting the ball any less hard than he did in 2015 - his HH% and LD% are steady from 2015 and up from 2014

2) 2015 Cruz had a fluky good year on HR/Fly even by his elevated standards (MLB average = 11%, Cruz's average = 20%, Cruz in 2015 = 30%) but also an odd year per his normal GB/FB profile.  He was able to bat .300 last year because he hit more balls on the ground.  Grounders have a higher BABIP than flies and his BABIP climbed as a result.  Normally, when you hit the ball on the ground more, you get fewer XBH/HR but we didn't notice because he was lucky on fly balls.

3) Cruz' plate discipline is showing every sign of gradually IMPROVING with time, not decaying.  He is no danger of aging out as of yet.  His K rate is steady from career norms and well down from 2015.  His BB rate is up...rising steadily from 5-6% early in his career to 10% now.

4) So far this year, Cruz is pulling to ball more than normal and also popping the ball up more than normal.  That is a player who is seeing the ball not that great or is physically a little off...but I wouldn't call it something I'd expect to continue.

5) The league is respecting Cruz more now.  He's facing an increasing diet of sliders, cutters and change-ups and for the first time in his career, his FB% is < 50%

6) There is no change in Cruz's run values per 100 pitches on any pitch type really - he's not being exposed or anything...they're just not throwing him as many FBs.

7) His Chase% is down, his zone swing percentage is up, his whiff rate is down noticeably, and his contact percentages are up (except out of zone, where they are down, and that's probably a good thing)

Oh...and on defense, Cruz is playing pretty well by his normal standards: DRS - -1 / UZR/150 -1 instead of -10

He's fine...and, apart from losing a few homers due to insanely good luck last year, I see no reason to expect anything short of a fantastic season from him.

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