A noble effort, sir Moe of Ivanhoe.
And doubtless much truth in what you say about the M's. The standard set of numbers does not correlating with their .500-ish record. Injuries, particularly the one to Felix, have helped short-circuit potential.
But I can be a stubborn cuss. Having watched the M's, I feel their .500-ish record corresponds to how this team has played. They are talented, but they are inconsistent and often do not PLAY up to their talent. To me the carryover from the last few years of some eggregious baserunning is a perplexing bellweather of a team that simply does not play the game well. And you don't often go to the postseason having not played well.
Many is the talented team with some gaudy numbers that lose out to lesser teams that play smart and execute, that minimize mistakes and minimize damage when they do make them, that persevere when things get tough (I'm looking at YOU, pitching staff, you of fragile heart.) On occasion sheer guts can trump talent. The truly great pitchers were more than just talent, they added guts and determination. This is where I find our pitching staff lacking, in particular Taijuan Walker and James Paxton. Yes, they are young, but IMHO they have not shown they are able to retreive innings that start to get out of hand. The term I mutter to myself is "rockhead," a term I picked up from G-Money.
I dunno, maybe I'm just being cantankerous. I hope so. But to me this team's record accurately reflects how they've played. Luck may have played some factor, but I'm not sure it's the decisive factor in the discrepancy between Pythag and actual.
Like everyone I'm hoping the return of Felix will help restore some of the swagger we started to feel earlier in the season. One wonders what the "spiritual" effect of his absence has been on the team. It's as if their center of gravity has been missing.
These are all generalized, vague, ethereal sentiments, but in my opinion such things are truly at work on this team.
Re: Marte, his lack of walks (disturbing!) and inconsistent defense (= error rate) have put a mild question mark over what had earlier in the season looked like a position locked down for years.
Re: Cruz, despite his continued HR production over the last month or so he has not been the same hitter as earlier. To me he looks tired, either mentally or physically or both. He could fall out of bed and hit home runs, but lately he's been suffering from the same syndrome we saw from Adrian Beltre when he was here, helplessly waving at sliders low and away. In key situations when they need a strikeout, Cruz has almost become a pitchers' escape hatch. I'm hoping the ASB will help. Otherwise, Cruz has reverted more to what we saw in Texas than what we saw last year.