I orginally thought some of the swings I saw from Vogel looked a lot like those I'd seen from Cust, but now that Ortiz's name is being thrown in the discussion, I think I'm buying that comparison a bit more, especially when it comes to the shape of the swing head to toe. So what was I seeing with Cust? I believe I was seeing body control similarities.
When it comes to the development of useable in-game strength and power, I think Vogel is more Cust-like than Ortiz-like--not exactly like Cust, but more like Cust. This is just a feeling I get, stats aside, when I look, not just at the physical appearance of his body, but at his body control through motion. What stands out to me is that he doesn't seem to have that sharp and powefully precise snap that guys like Ortiz, or Prince Fielder have. I think even Tank has it, which is why I'm optimistic he can continue to narrow his eye ratio. Tons of guys have it at the top of every professional sport. Vogel has it, kind-of, but not quite like that.
I watch a lot of pop-and lock dancing in my free time, and after watching thousands of dancers, I can tell that certain people just have this precision, control, and power that set them apart given equal experience and practice. In dancing, it gives them the ability to generate illusions in a way that the exact same repeated motion from a dancer without the same body power can't quite duplicate. Vogel, to my eye, is the really good dancer without that special body control. Not because he's fat, but because it's not in him, maybe genetically, maybe due to his workout routine.
What I think that means is there is less power in his body than guys like Ortiz. On top of that, there are larger error bars on his swing precision than his MiLB stats may be telling us. When confronted with MLB pitching I suspect, like almost everyone, those error bars will be exploited. I'm curious how wide those bars are. If too wide, his minor league eye ratio may not mean a lick, and we may have another guy who figured out how to look good in the minors.
In all, this is just my untrained eye making an observation, and it is one variable in the multivariable art of hitting and hiting for power. I actually trust what the scouts (and you guys) see and say, and I'm pretty confident a faker can be spotted, even if I can't spot him. I don't think Vogel is a faker. I think he's a damn good prospect, but I'm skeptical of the star potential, probably the same way a lot of scouts were about Kyle Seager, who also does not have this special body control magic I speak of.