60-53: In a neck and neck and neck race with Boston and Detroit for WC spot #2.
I think we SSI'ers have generally operated under the assumption that 90 wins gets you into the WC, 89 probably does so and 88 might. The numbr has been 93-92-88-86 over the past four years.
If 90 is the number (and assuming that Baltimore stays on top of the WC race), the M's have to go 30-19 from here-on-out. 61% is a tough task. And we have to hope that Boston doesn't go 30-20 or that Detroit hammers it's way to 30 more wins.
If 89 is the magic number, then we have to play 59% ball. 88 demands 57%.
All of that asks that Boston and Detroit play at 53% from here on out.
In the midst of our 10-1 run, it is easy to think that 30 wins by Oct. 2nd is easy-peasy. But, at some point in those 49 games we're going to go 1-3 or 2-4. It will happen.
If we go 1-4 at some point (well within the realm of reasonability...that is a very mini-slump) then we have to win 29 of the other 44 games, nearly 66%, to get to 90.
Of course, all that is just as true for Boston and Detroit. And Houston could go nuts. Or maybe Baltimore does a Cubby-type collapse. But 90 looks to be our lock-it-in number and to get there we have to avoid the 6 or7 game ugly stretch. Even a 2 win, 5 loss week demands a 67% win rate in the rest of the games. That would be hot stuff. We've won 11 of our last 16, despite our smoking week, and 11/16 is 69%. Do we have another 10-1 stretch in us?
If the number is 88...well, then....we're pretty decently positioned. But that assumes that both Boston and Detroit "stumble"...or that Baltimore doess. It is best that we shoot for 90.
And to get there demands that we don't have the cold-cold week. Simple things like a back to back bullpen meltdown, followed by a 1-run game equal a cold cold week. It's pretty dang possible. But we seem to be gelling and we certainly have guys with broad-enough shoulders to pack us for a bit.
Put your shootin' shoes on, lace 'em up tight, it's going to be a fun race to October. Which is exactly what we hoped we would get way back in April.
Go team.