1
It includes long periods without Walker, Paxton, Felix, Zunino, Heredia, Lee, Aoki, Diaz...In fact, everyone in the bullpen except Nuno.
The additions far outweigh the subtractions as well.
The current roster is much better than the average roster on the season. Factor that and your odds improve. If you factor momentum, strength of schedule...I don't know. 15% may still be high but I think 1% is probably low. The head to head puts more of it into their hands. They're currently 25-24 vs remaining opponents. Again, that record was largely accrued by lesser versions of the roster. They still need to significantly outpace 4 of 5 teams but that's exactly what they've done the last 7 (6-1) and 10 (7-3 in Sep.) games.