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Next year they say $7-8M in arb, so what, $12M after that ... $20M is the arb money he can count on so far. Then at 3/$50 we'd be offering him $16-17M per, for his first three FA seasons. Tough to see him accepting that. But, as you say, the first $70-80M is worth a lot more than the $70-80M to follow...
Kyle Seager accepted 7/$100M from a better position than Segura's in now. So 5/$70-80M is worth putting on the table, anyway...