There were 20 guys who hit 22-27 HR's in the AL last season. 22-27 because I think that is a pretty safe O'Neill bet.
OPS+'s were 87,89,93, 96, 101, 101, 102, 104, 106, 107, 110, 115, 115, 116, 117, 123, 126, 133, 144, 154.
The guys below 100 were (in order) Moreland, Perez (KC), Mazara and Schoop. At the top of the list were Abreu, Beltran, J.D. Martinez and Altuve.
The guys straddling the median are Kipnis (107) and Sano (110).
I didn't look at 30+ HR's, which I thought was a fair thiing to not do. But it is dang hard to hit 25 HR's and not be a minor offensive force. That said, the question is whether a 25 HR O'Neill's upside is 130 OPS+ or 108. Basically that's the difference between Seager and Smith. If he's only Smith then he expendable, without question.
At 25 homers, O'Neill is valuable but not untouchable. Will give you that. It is the rest of an over-loaded package that presents the issue, as well
Were I the White Sox, and playing with the house money, I think that I would hold on to Quintana right now (or make a Rumpelstiltskin demand) and trade him mid-summer when Contention Desperation sets in. That comes with some risk. But the pay-off will likely be higher.
Once Buhner becamse a regular, he ran 130 numbers like clockwork. O'Neill is unlikely to do that, one after the other, without 30 HR's or an improved Eye. Understood.
But mashing 21 year olds don't grow on trees, either. DiPoto likes this kid a bunch, I believe. I think he will try another path to our MOR arm.