Hey all. Not sure if anyone besides Doc remembers that I emerged from lurking last summer to moan sourly about the gap between the Mariners and the Rangers. Turns out the Mariners were the better team, but the Rangers got all the wins... maybe call that a push, as far as predictive analysis goes.
At the time, my main gripe was that the Rangers had athletes flying around the outfield, while Seth Smith looked like an average defensive outfielder only so long as he was standing still. After seeing one too many popup drop 17ft in front of him, my former love for Smith evaporated and I started demaning an outfield whose members were all competent runners, if nothing else. It just looked to me like every offensive run Smith created with his diamond hard at-bats was being given away in the bottom half of the inning with legs made of concrete.
As you might guess, the Smith for Dyson trade appeals to me greatly on this level, as does the plethora of available backup CFs. Remember when the consensus was that Martin needed to play daily, no matter how badly he hit, because it was that or watch Aoki run routes in the big part of the ballpark? That was last year, during the stretch run. Nice to know Ben Gamel is buried 5 deep on the CF depth chart now.
Now, in defense of JeDi's trip to Jarrods: Dyson may look, from afar, like a 2-WAR player. This would make him Leonys Martin v2, more or less. BUT. When you look at plate appearances per season, a different calculation emerges. Turns out Dyson creates his WAR in a little less than 300PAs per year, on average. That is a very low comitment in exchange for a starter's output of value. Jarrod Dyson the benchie is a championship caliber 4th-outfielder/pinch-runner, literally. Just ask the Royals how cool it was when he stole 3rd with one out in the 9th inning of the 2014 wild-card game, representing the tying run. According to Jeff Sullivan, that was the most valuable WPA stolen base in the playoffs on record (since 2002). Point being, Dyson may be able to score the winning run in a Paxton-Sale game... but he doesn't have to be a starter to do it. He just has to trot out towards 1st, high five Nelly, and go swipe a few bags.
For my money, being the best kill-shot pinch runner in the league isn't exactly soft WAR. As Doc is fond of saying, every game you win on your own is worth one win, even if it isn't worth 1WAR. Dyson looks to me like he may rival Boomstick for (# of actual baseball games won) *divided by* (Fangraphs WAR). Seems like a pretty sweet weapon to me.
Karns for Gallardo? That's a much less pleasent question. The only thing grosser than Yovani's trendlines is the scraggly desperado beard he had as a Texas Ranger. You ask me, JeDi accepted the dropoff from the Kkkarnivore to Gallardo in exchange for the upgrade from Heredia to Dyson. Will it pay off? That's above my pay grade...