Even though he careered it last year, Seager has been been a consistent rock: 4.2, 6.2, 4.7 and now 7.3 WAR. His bat has been 4.6, 4.5, 4.3, 5.3. Gloves are alwys iffy with dWAR. He might lost 1-1.5 just in defensive noise. He could have an All-Star year and lose two WAR. But then, his bat might jump another level, too.
Can has been incredibly consistent,running about 6 WAR with his bat for ever (minus '15). But it could happen that evn he ages a bit. Last year showed no hint of such a thing, however. But he has tyupically foled up his finest glove years with a drop of a dWAR or two. Such is dWAR noise. He could have an All-Star year and lose two WAR. At 33 he hit a career high ini HR's: Is that sustainable?
It is perfectly seeable that Cruz might drop to '13 or '14 levels with the bat, he is 36, after all. He was an All-Star both years, combining for 6.5 batting WAR. His 11.0/5.5 average for the past two years could easily decline by 1-1.5 points...and he would still be pretty good. The last two years were his career best in oWAR: Can he improve on those at 36?
In '13, Segura's 2nd best bat year, he was nearly 2 oWAR worse than he was last saeason...and yet was still pretty good. He could still be a .300 hitter but lose 1-1.5 oWAR. But it is worth remembring, he's a huge upgrade...even if only close to '13 levels.
I'm not predicting any such thing, but it is far easier to see a fair drop in oWAR from those 4 than it is to imagine a fair increase.
And yet our offense is wrapped up in thoe 4 bats. Even if two of them lose just 2 oWAR each with their bats (they would still be pretty good), and the others hold the terrific performance they had last season (career bests in three cases)....then it is unlikely Dyson's 33 SB's make up for much difference.
Which puts a bunch of offensive dependency on Haniger/Vogelsbach/Gamel/Zunino.
Two of those guys have to be pretty productive or our offense could easily have a dark dimension to it.
Dipoto's lust for wheels and leather in the OF may, in some way, be his way of admitting some '17 decline from some of our big boppers. Insurance, as it were.