According to WAR, do we really have four #2 starters, and a #5?
I decided to check. (Maybe I should have done that first?)
I used Steamer. Since there are 30 teams with 5 man rotations, the first 30 could be construed as "#1's"--even if they're not aces. 31-60 equals a #2, etc.
By this definition, our beloved James Paxton is actually a #1--by the skin of his teeth. He's projected as the 30th best starter.
Felix (#40) and Smyly (#56) are solid #2's, and Kuma barely misses that mark, coming in at #65, or a strong #3. To emphasize my point here, if there were equal distribution of WAR, every team would have two of the best 60 starters.
We have four of the top 65.
Gallardo is a borderline #5...coming in at 151st best. .
However, no surprise that we don't stack up in terms of aces against Boston's 3 #1's--Sale, Price and Porcello, all in the top 22. And the Rangers have a #1 with Darvish and the strongest #2 with Hamels at SP #31, one spot behind Paxton. Meanwhile, the Astros have two in the top 30--Keuchel and McCullers, along with McHugh as a #2 at SP #53.
So my hope is that four of a kind beats three of any face cards you got.