It strikes me that JeDi may be betting on Segura resigning with the club when his arbitration years run out after 2018. Or maybe even a 4-5 year extension after this season, assuming he earns it. My logic is as follows.
A. We gave up a whole lot of club controlled years of Walker (and Marte) in exchange for this dude. As a two year rental, that's... iffy. Of course we're in win-now mode, of course Mitch Haniger is an SSI Next-Best-Bet, of course Walker may never leap the plateau and become a TOR superstar. But if we really want to have gotten ~commensurate value in that trade, we need Segura to hit his HI projection at least one, maybe both of his years with us.
B. JeDi is probably smart enough not to bet on that UP scenario occurring. I mean, I love how well fit Segura seems to fit this team, but the man is not going to slug .500 as a Mariner. He had 68! XBH last year, and that's got to come back to Earth, at least a little. 20 homers seems unlikely, and some of those 48 doubles/triples are going to hang up in the gap in the dastardly Safeco marine layer. He's also not gonna maintain that .353 BABIP (career .314) either.
HI would be that he does about 90% of what he did last year, say 300/365/485, but done in Safeco because he improved enough to maintain the line. Maybe a 20% chance that he spends the next couple years hauling in MVP votes, making the MOTO look like scrubs.
LO would be the 620 OPS he put up the two previous years. Probably just a 10-20% chance, but he's demonstrated that his floor is below the basement.
MID lets say 285/350/450, at SS, with baserunning, clubhouse synergy, and lineup synergy all in his favor. Which makes Segura a "minor" superstar, in the same way Seager is a "minor" superstar, or Donald Trump's Shock and Awe tactics are a “minor” innovation in American politics.
C. Here's the thing: I suspect JeDi is banking on that MID projection, and banking hard. Why? Because if Segura hits that UP projection, he's hauling in 33M a year for the Red Sox in 2019. Of course you got some sweet production, but... how much juicier would it be for Segura to hit his MID projection, be an under the radar 4-5-win player, and re-up on a deal that keeps him here, next to Robbie, for even longer? If there isn't a bidding war over him, I bet he'd be willing to stay. We’re competitive, have a fun Dominican clubhouse, and ownership that finally appears invested in winning. You'll have to pay him fairly of course, but I don't hear anyone complaining about the 100M deal Seager signed. Stars are Stars, and if trading Taijuan gets you two cheap years and four fairly compensated years of the perfect compliment to Robbie Cano, well, you make that deal.
Nellie's contract is up the same year Segura hits free agency. You slide his money into the Segura contract, let Robbie/Seager/Haniger hold down the MOTO, and laugh all the way to the bank ;-)
What do y’all think? Is this me being wishful, or does this smell like a delayed trade-and-extend situation to anyone else?