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I get it if you want to project him to hit for a lower average (.230 or even lower if you are seriously in doubt about his contact chops or holes they might exploit) but the dude is ripped and enormously strong. Any lack of homers before the second half of 2015 was just a lack of proper mechanics. Problem solved.
So if you have him hitting .230, he'd better be slugging .430+ in your world, because otherwise, you just aren't making sense. :)