you give the scouts' input more credence when the cost of acquiring a toolsy-but-unproven player is relatively low.
You pay guys seven figures based on their tools, on a hope-and-a-prayer that they can someday put it together for you. In today's eye-popping salary/signing bonus landscape, seven figures doesn't go as far as it used to...
You pay guys eight figures based on what they've demonstrated they can do when things work right for them, so long as they display average-or-better ability when things (health, roster synergy, proper deployment, etc..) do go their way.
You pay them *nine* figures for demonstrating that things pretty much always work right for them ;-)
And yeah, history is littered with the bones of the failed and the fallen. Only a few ever reach the top of the hill they're trying to take--and precious few of *those* people manage to stay there for very long.