But I can't buy into the fatalism.
The Mariners have a VERY good lineup. And it's not unrealistic to think that Haniger, Zunino, Gamel and Heredia have yet to reach their upsides. Healy I like. And keeping Nellie as DH prevents us from having to trot out a weakened outfield defense. In Anaheim, putting Ohtani in the lineup means one of Cron, Pujols, Calhoun or Upton has to sit. He's not a pure add.
Of course, our pitching remains a question...and the Angels' just got better. But assuming equal health, I say our staff is better. (Remember, Ohtani pitched just 25 innings last year thanks to leg injuries incurred playing the field. How much of a load can he handle this year?) Once JD figures out how to replace Miranda as a fifth starter, we will be better. Paxton vs. Ohtani? Take your pick...but I like our guy until Ohtani proves himself. We have a closer that throws 100MPH...and gives up a lot of homers.
Finally, it's obvious no one knows how Ohtani will do this year. But some people project anyway. Like Doc, I trust Shandler's people as much as anyone else.
As I've posted before, their estimates:
Pitching: 160 IP, 3.52/1.23, 9.3 K9, 3.7 BB/9. That last number is the key. They put his talent level at that of Darvish and Tanaka when they came over (although obviously he's younger). Darvish is the most similar in terms of stuff--but he struggled for several years with control. Could be the difference in the ball, or other things. In any case, control is the bugaboo. For next year they slot him into a category that includes Paxton, Arrieta, Samardzja, Salazar, Maeda, Santana and Porcello. In other words, someone you want--but not someone you can count on to make an all star team.
Hitting: 258 AB, 10/40/255, 761 OPS. Big red flag on contact rate...which was a problem in Japan. As M's fans well know, 500 feet in batting practice is worth diddly. He's in a value category (considering limited ABs) that thus includes Seth Smith, Joc Pederson. Granderson, Marisnick--and Heredia. In other words, not an asset. The Angels may be better off NOT having him hit.
So, it's still anyone's guess. If there's enough money left to land Darvish, we're better. If not, we'll see who the new starter is.
But as someone once said, if you can't be optimistic, why be a sports fan?
I will not give up hope!