Thanks Matt, an interesting read.
I've long said that Miranda had #2/3 stuff in him. Stuff stuff, I mean. The stuff that gets weak-ish contact. Now I'm not so sure.
Stuff only goes so far if you keep from getting creamed in the zone, and keep from getting a sore neck as you watch balls leave the park.
Hey, 218 innings is a small sample, but the two-season consistency of his 2-ish HR/9 rate is bothersome. However, if you look at it like this: His career BABIP is .223 (.218 vR!!/.298 vL), so either he's been really lucky on balls that stay in the park or he's really good when balls don't leave the park. For comparison, Kershaw's career BABIP is .275. Randy Johnson's was .295. Lefty Carlton's was .284. Sandy Koufax's was .259. So, either Miranda has been incredibly lucky on balls that stay in the park or he's been incredibly unlucky on balls that do leave the park. If we're betting on some improvement in his HR/9 rate (a fair bet), we should be betting more on a regression of his All-Universe BABIP. Kershaw, Johnson, Carlton and Koufax are all in the pantheon of LHP's in MLB history. Three of them possibly vie for the right to be called the best lefty starter ever. Miranda isn't that good, in case you haven't noticed.
Kershaw's career HR/9 is 0.6, topping out at 1.2 in '17. Carlton's was 0.9 and before he hit 41 was never north of 1.3. Johnson's was 0.9 and never above 1.3 until he was 45.
There is no way in the Wide Wide World of Sports that Miranda can run a skill-based .223 BABIP and bad luck himself into 2 homers a game.
Something is amiss. It is why I now wonder if he tops out at a 4/5. Even if he gets his HR/9 down to 1.5, his BABIP is increasing to the .260 range (likely to the .290 range), anyway.
Go team.